Thursday, November 11, 2010
Friday, November 5, 2010
Dems Lose Big, Theocrats Take Power
Well, the midterm elections are over, and as you are probably aware, the Republicans have taken control of the House by a massive margin, and nearly evened out the Senate. What does this mean for the majority of the Country? Not much really. The GOP is going to try to repeal healthcare, and is going to fail because the don't control the Senate. They are going to try to work on the economy, and probably fail because at this point, government interference isn't going to do much. Lastly, they are going to fight marriage equality, because they know their time is limited. Why? Age.
The Republican base is old, averaging over 45 years of age. The Democrats range more, but if you look at the 2008 election, when the Dems won huge, it was the younger vote, 18-30, that really swayed the count. Younger voters are more likely to be Democrats, and this means that in the next 20 years, the GOP faces a huge problem, as their base literally begins to die off around them.
This matches the typical idea of young people being more liberal, being the voices of change in societies. Look at marriage equality, for example. The main group that is against it is older white Christians. The demographic most likely to support marriage equality are people under the age of 30, as shown by the 2009 Gallup poll.
The question then, is how much damage can these aging theocrats do before they kick the bucket. We've got at least two difficult years ahead of us. The only bright spot is that they have no public mandate to go after marriage equality. NOM may enjoy talking about how they have stopped the wave of marriage equality and the next 2 years will be regaining ground, but the truth is that the majority of Republicans were elected because of economic issues. The tea party movement, largely credited with fueling the so called conservative wave, shied away from commenting on marriage rights at all, for fear of alienating independents who are more socially liberal. If the Republicans DO try to push for any major legislation that is anti marriage equality, we're going to see a large backlash at them. Because of that, they'll probably be hesitant to do anything direct. They'll definitely stop all forward progress though.
In summary, Republicans now have control, and they oppose marriage equality. They'll be hesitant about bringing up any direct conflict on the issue though, because they were elected on a mandate to fix the economy, not restore old values. So, we will be unlikely to see any large ground lost. On the same key though, it will be difficult to gain any ground, and so the next 2 years are going to be a waiting game. If we can make it to 2012, hopefully the public will have turned again, and we can resume progress with a Democratic congress.
The Republican base is old, averaging over 45 years of age. The Democrats range more, but if you look at the 2008 election, when the Dems won huge, it was the younger vote, 18-30, that really swayed the count. Younger voters are more likely to be Democrats, and this means that in the next 20 years, the GOP faces a huge problem, as their base literally begins to die off around them.
This matches the typical idea of young people being more liberal, being the voices of change in societies. Look at marriage equality, for example. The main group that is against it is older white Christians. The demographic most likely to support marriage equality are people under the age of 30, as shown by the 2009 Gallup poll.
The question then, is how much damage can these aging theocrats do before they kick the bucket. We've got at least two difficult years ahead of us. The only bright spot is that they have no public mandate to go after marriage equality. NOM may enjoy talking about how they have stopped the wave of marriage equality and the next 2 years will be regaining ground, but the truth is that the majority of Republicans were elected because of economic issues. The tea party movement, largely credited with fueling the so called conservative wave, shied away from commenting on marriage rights at all, for fear of alienating independents who are more socially liberal. If the Republicans DO try to push for any major legislation that is anti marriage equality, we're going to see a large backlash at them. Because of that, they'll probably be hesitant to do anything direct. They'll definitely stop all forward progress though.
In summary, Republicans now have control, and they oppose marriage equality. They'll be hesitant about bringing up any direct conflict on the issue though, because they were elected on a mandate to fix the economy, not restore old values. So, we will be unlikely to see any large ground lost. On the same key though, it will be difficult to gain any ground, and so the next 2 years are going to be a waiting game. If we can make it to 2012, hopefully the public will have turned again, and we can resume progress with a Democratic congress.
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